A couple of weeks ago I stumbled upon a very interesting website around
economics and the environment, and if you are interested in the dismal science and how it applies to environmental protections, I highly recommend it. It can get heady (read: nerdy) at times, but it is a very good, informative site with some excellent comments from readers.
Well, last week a poster at that blog linked to an article in the British Times Online on
population and the environment. In it, Jonathan Porritt, Chair of Britain's Sustainable Development Commission, states: “I am unapologetic about asking people to connect up their own responsibility for their total environmental footprint and how they decide to procreate and how many children they think are appropriate,”. He goes on to state that any attempts at fixing our environmental problems need to actively work to curb population growth.
So here is a question for you all: To what extent do you believe population growth is inherently a factor in environmental degradation, and more specifically, to global warming?
Personally, I see a huge problem in pointing at population growth as a first cause, or near to it. I also think that trying to address it specifically will be an utter failure, and will build resentment and concerns about eugenics and racism. But, there is a silver lining for you
ZPG people, to whit, you are aiming too high for reality.
Consider this: The very countries that A) have a population of any voice clamoring for a general population cut, and B) have very low or negative internal population growth patterns, are the very same countries that A) have very strong current social safety nets, and B) are BY FAR the largest emitters of carbon and other pollutants.
It is very easy for an upper-class bloke in England to claim that there are too many babies in the world, when England is looking at a birth rate of 1.7 per couple, and when he will never have to worry about getting support in his old age (or so he thinks). It is also easy to throw around average consumption and emission levels for a country, when it is glaringly obvious that his particular emission patterns are far higher than his country's average, what with his travel and all the papers using energy to print his drivel. It would be better to break down emissions by quintiles, like we do socio-economic patterns.
If you compare pollution emissions to development, you find that those same countries with negative population growth are also the catalysts for, by far, the largest environmental degradation throughout the earth. Why are rainforests burned? Why are we drilling all over the place? Why are we burning coal and corn and palm oil? Only countries with sophisticated infrastructure can use those highly processed products. Is it an irony, or is there some kind of logical connection in the inverse relationship between population growth and devastating consumption?
It turns out that there is a logical connection. The only successful means to curbing population growth have involved two components: 1) Women's education; 2) economic development. When women get even an eighth-grade level of education, reproduction rates fall dramatically. Also, when power grids and highways go up, reproduction rates fall. I'll leave it to smarter folks to tell me why (although I think television may be a factor in the latter case). Obviously, these components have not been instituted as a means to curb population, but they are universally seen as the only ways that have effectively and consistently brought it about.
So the real concern for folks worried about population should be on consumption, and more specifically, how we get women's education and economic development into countries without the subsequent consumption causing environmental devastation. Blaming poor people for having sex won't cut it, and when you actually begin to curb population growth, you will see a number of unintended consequences, especially with regards to social security and per capita consumption.
And that silver lining I mentioned for the ZPG people?
Click here.